The Magic Show Problem: Why Your Private Equity Returns May Feel Like an Illusion
A street magician turned $20 into $100 for my son. A private equity fund’s headline IRR performs a similar trick. The numbers to ask for instead.
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A street magician turned $20 into $100 for my son. A private equity fund’s headline IRR performs a similar trick. The numbers to ask for instead.
Our favorite pizzeria lost its magic once it got famous. Most top-performing fund managers do too. Why past rankings are a poor guide to picking the next winner.
Merchants faced pirates and farmers planted without forecasts. Uncertainty isn’t new; our illusion of control is. Old habits for an unknowable future.